France's Government Has Fallen And It Can't Get Up

Who will answer when the Political LifeCall button is pushed?

Live look into French politics:

Good morning to all you anarchists! For those who have been dreaming of a world without government, we appear to be headed into your Golden Age.

Exhibit A: France. The country currently has no functioning government, and it’s not clear when — or if — it will have one again. If you missed the last season of the Great French Political Soap Opera, here’s a quick recap:

Emmanuel Macron was re-elected in 2022 despite being fairly unpopular. When his party did not get a clear majority in the legislative elections, he decided to double down and do a bunch of stuff that made him even more unpopular.

Last summer it was time for the European Parliament elections, a kind of pretend government entity that does something, but not very often and not very much. In France, the far-right Marine LePen party won the most parliament seats in a bit of a shock that was seen as a rebuke to Herr Macron.

With his government teetering, Macron announced a snap election to call voters’ bluff about the whole fascism thing. “You want to vote for fascists? I double dog dare you!”

Voters, in return, delivered him a punch in the political nuts.

A rag-tag armada of left-leaning groups cobbled together a coalition that got the most seats — but not a majority. That was a bummer for the far-righties who were totally sure they were going win the whole shebang and get to run the government.

Quick civic lessons: French voters elect a president every 5 years (Macron) who then outsources the running of the actual government to a Prime Minister. That Prime Minister typically has a majority in the National Assembly so pretty much has free rein to do whatever.

But…

A situation like last summer where no one had a majority? Almost never happens. So the left was demanding that a lefty should be PM because they had the most seats. That sounds logical, so after taking the summer to watch the Olympics and milk the political suspense, Macron naturally picked a PM from a center-right party that finished last in the voting.

Michel Jean Barnier, an elder statesman of sorts, took the PM wheel and immediately began warning of a looming fiscal crisis from all the debt-related spending that propped up the country during the pandemic. Time to tighten those budget belts. Hashtag Austerity!

The budget deficit stands at 6.1% of its gross domestic product (GDP), with the national debt reaching €3.2 trillion. That exceeds acceptable limits for Euro-zone countries, which is a giant ruh-roh.

Barnier proposed a compromise budget that would whack €60 billion. Like all good compromises, this one managed to piss off everyone.

Now, here is where we get some fun plot twists!

Marine Le Pen emerged as the central figure in this balance of power. While the lefties have the most seats, they would need at least some of her righties to vote for a motion of no confidence that would force Barnier to resign. Now, because Macron’s PM had shown some deference to her, thus bringing her closer than ever to the circle of power, she seemed inclined to NOT support such a vote.

In fact, she forced Barnier to back down from some elements of his plan, including higher taxes on energy and reduced reimbursements for some healthcare items. Meanwhile, still lacking the votes to pass the budget and with the clock ticking, Barnier invoked a bit of Parliamentary trickery to do an end-run around the Assembly — which of course ended up just digging a bigger hole.

But…in a bit of awkward timing, Le Pen’s long-delayed trial for corruption and embezzling and creating fake jobs while a member of the aforementioned European Parliament got underway last. The court made it very clear that there is a high likelihood she would be found guilty and a high probability that she would be BARRED FROM RUNNING FOR PRESIDENT IN 2027!

Fresh from the realization that she now had Zero F—ks to give, Le Pen chose chaos and decided to support the motion of no confidence.

And lo, it came to pass, that on Wednesday, December 4, 2024, 331 deputies in the Assembly out of 574 (58 %) voted to kick Barnier off the government island. On Thursday, he officially resigned — and entered history as France’s shortest-serving PM as his consolation prize.

He came, he saw, he was fired.

“What happens now?” you may ask. The fun part is that no one knows!

Macron addressed the country on Thursday and said he would not resign, despite calls from across the political spectrum for him to do so. He also said he would appoint a new PM sooner rather than later (maybe by Monday).

During the nationally televised speech, he defended his decision to call the snap election last summer, while giving the side eye to voters for voting in a way that resulted in a confusing situation:

However, I have to admit that this decision was not understood. Many criticized me for it, and I know many still do. It's a fact and it's my responsibility. However, no one can say that in doing so, I didn't give you back your voice. I believe it was necessary.

He also kinda sorta accepted some responsibility, but then pointed out why others were to blame:

I'm well aware that some people are tempted to blame me for this situation - it's much more comfortable. But if I have always assumed all my responsibilities, a good thing as sometimes the mistakes I may have made, I will never assume the irresponsibility of others, and in particular of the parliamentarians who have chosen in good conscience to bring down the budget and the government of France, just a few days before the Christmas holidays.

The deputies of the Rassemblement National [Le Pen] chose to vote a motion of censure that said the opposite of their program, that insulted their own voters. In doing so, they simply chose disorder, which is the only project that unites them with the far left. And this with the complicity of the rest of the New Popular Front [the left coalition that won the most seats last summer]. Not to make, but to undo, to create disorder.

Why have all these MPs done this?

They don't think about you, your lives, your difficulties, your ends of the month, your projects. Let's be honest. They're only thinking about one thing: the presidential election. To prepare for it, to provoke it, to precipitate it. And to do so with cynicism, if need be, and a certain sense of chaos.

Then, he pivoted to a call for unity:

On Saturday [today], in front of the whole world, we'll be celebrating the reopening of Notre-Dame-de-Paris to the public. The cathedral will be returned to Parisians, to all of us, to Catholics from all over the world, and to all faiths. And this work that we thought impossible, remember, all of us, on this evening in April 2019. Well, we've done it. Just as we did our Olympic and Paralympic Games. We did it because there was a clear course, a will, and because every woman and every man worked hard: public officials, civil servants, salaried employees, companions, volunteers... everyone had an essential role to play for a cause greater than all of us. It's proof that we know how to do great things, that we know how to do the impossible. And the whole world, on two occasions this year, admires us for it.

Thus, Macron remains in a real political pickle.

Compromise is not part of French political culture. His own center-right party members are pushing for a coalition on the right and refusing to work with anyone on the left. He’s consulting with other opposition groups, but the further left LFI party — the biggest part of the New Popular Front coalition — has refused to meet.

As of this morning, it’s not clear what kind of PM could be appointed and survive another vote of no confidence. Macron’s only leverage is that if a new budget is not passed soon, a whole slew of tax increases will take effect early in 2025 and some government services could be limited. In such a scenario, it’s unclear who voters will blame.

Can Macron unlock the secrets of a compromise government? Stay tuned for the next thrilling episode!

Chris O’Brien

Paris, France